Mark Zuckerberg, (born May 14, 1984) is an American computer programmer and entrepreneur. As a Harvard student, he created the online social website Facebook, a site popular among American college students, with fellow computer science major students and his roommates Dustin Moskovitz and Chris Hughes. He serves as Facebook's CEO. He has been the subject of controversy for the origins of his business and his wealth.
Time Magazine added Zuckerberg as one of The World's Most Influential People of 2008. Zuckerberg fell under the Scientists & Thinkers category for his web phenomenon, Facebook, and ranked 52 out of 101 people. The list consisted of international revolutionaries that honors people from Barack Obama and Dalai Lama to Michael Phelps and Brangelina.
Mark Zuckerberg was born in White Plains, NY, and raised in Dobbs Ferry, New York, by his parents, Edward and Karen Zuckerberg, who are both doctors. His father Edward is a dentist in Dobbs Ferry, New York. Early on, Zuckerberg enjoyed making computer programs, especially communication tools and games. He started programming when he was in middle school. While attending Phillips Exeter Academy in high school, he built a program to help the workers in his dad's office communicate and a version of the game Risk. He also built a music player named Synapse that used artificial intelligence to learn the user's listening habits. Microsoft and AOL tried to purchase Synapse and recruit Zuckerberg, but instead he decided to attend Harvard University.
Mark Zuckerberg launched Facebook from his Harvard dorm room on February 4, 2004. It quickly became a success at Harvard and more than two-thirds of the school's students signed up in the first two weeks. Zuckerberg then decided to spread Facebook to other schools and enlisted the help of roommate Dustin Moskovitz. They first spread it to Northwestern, UCLA, Harvard, the University of Virginia (UVA) and Yale and then to other Ivy League colleges and schools in the Boston area, including Tufts University, Boston University and Boston College. By the beginning of the summer, Zuckerberg and Moskovitz had released Facebook at almost forty-five schools and hundreds of thousands of people were using it.
Zuckerberg moved to Palo Alto, California, with Moskovitz and some friends during the summer of 2004. According to Zuckerberg, the group planned to return to Harvard in the fall but eventually decided to remain in California. To date, he has not returned as a student to the college. They leased a small house which served as their first office. Over the summer, Zuckerberg met Peter Thiel who invested in the company. They got their first office on University Avenue in downtown Palo Alto a few months later. Today, the company has seven buildings and several hundred people in downtown Palo Alto, forming what Zuckerberg calls an "urban campus".
Zuckerberg's Harvard classmates, Divya Narendra, Cameron Winklevoss, and Tyler Winklevoss, claim he stole their idea for their own site, ConnectU. A lawsuit was filed in 2004 and has been dismissed without prejudice on March 28, 2007, but was never ruled on. It was refiled soon thereafter in U.S. District Court in Boston, and a preliminary hearing was scheduled for July 25, 2007. At the hearing the judge told ConnectU parts of their complaint were not sufficiently pled and gave them the ability to refile an amended complaint. On June 25, 2008, the case was settled and Facebook agreed to pay an undisclosed amount of cash and stock.
As part of the lawsuit, in November 2007, confidential court documents were posted on the website of Harvard alumni magazine 02138. They included Zuckerberg's social security number, his parents' home address and his girlfriend's address. Facebook filed to get the documents taken down, but the judge ruled in favor of 02138.
Forbes Top400 ranked Mark as #321 richest person in the world with $1.5 billion networth. He is also the youngest person to ever appear on the Forbes list.
On October 24, 2007, Facebook Inc. sold a 1.6% stake to Microsoft Corp. for $240 million, spurning a competing offer from online search leader Google Inc. This would indicate that Facebook had a market value of $15 billion at the time of the sale. However, most analysts believe the actual valuation of to be far less. The $240 million dollars paid by Microsoft includes premiums for both preferred shares and global ad placements.
Friday, January 30, 2009
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
SIGNS A BEAR MARKET IS ENDING
1. Bad news abundant. The stock market always seems to start up before the bad news (about lower industrial production, unemployment, lack of consumer confidence, etc.) stops. At that point, the market will be acting ‘‘contrary to the obvious,’’ which is usually a good sign that the market is right in whatever it does.
2. Credit. Still tight. But credit balances in brokerage accounts usually are
considerable. Large holdings in bonds and other cash-related investments. This latent buying power is what will give a new bull market its stamina.
3. Stock Market. Volume low, not much interest. Stocks selling at low price earnings ratios, high yields. But then new lows in the DJIA and S&P occur on even lower volumes. Some key stocks begin to show good rally potential. Volume tends to increase on rallies, decrease on dips. Charts are the way to spot this.
4. Confidence. Nil. Pessimistic forecasts made for the market and for business.
5. Real Estate. Unless it has been an inflationary bear market, real estate prices will be down. It is hard to sell property. Lots of empty commercial buildings. Rents reduced. Foreclosures rise.
6. Bonds. Government bond buying is popular. Corporate bonds are high, yields low.
2. Credit. Still tight. But credit balances in brokerage accounts usually are
considerable. Large holdings in bonds and other cash-related investments. This latent buying power is what will give a new bull market its stamina.
3. Stock Market. Volume low, not much interest. Stocks selling at low price earnings ratios, high yields. But then new lows in the DJIA and S&P occur on even lower volumes. Some key stocks begin to show good rally potential. Volume tends to increase on rallies, decrease on dips. Charts are the way to spot this.
4. Confidence. Nil. Pessimistic forecasts made for the market and for business.
5. Real Estate. Unless it has been an inflationary bear market, real estate prices will be down. It is hard to sell property. Lots of empty commercial buildings. Rents reduced. Foreclosures rise.
6. Bonds. Government bond buying is popular. Corporate bonds are high, yields low.
SIGNS A BULL MARKET IS ENDING
1. The most important indicator that a downturn still has a long way to go is when investor sentiment is still bullish while the underlying economic structure continues to weaken.
2. Price earnings ratios. In recent years, even rational analysts have puzzled over why they no longer seem to ‘‘work.’’ This is all part of the separation of stocks from the values of the companies they represent. In his book Irrational Exuberance, Yale professor Robert Shiller points out that, since 1870, price earnings ratios for big companies have averaged just under 13 for a yield of 7.75%. In late 2001, that ratio was between 25 and 35, for a yield of about 2–4%,depending which biased source you read. To return to a more traditional price earnings ratio, the DJIA would have to fall to at least 5000. I will discuss that in more detail in a later chapter, but suffice it to say here that it suggests that this bear market has further to fall.
3. The Federal Reserve. Fed action has been the most closely watched indicator in the last 5 years. But, with the most aggressive rate reductions in history, driving US interest rates down to a level not seen since the 1960s and with no result, it is increasingly clear that when the US economy goes south, there is little government can do to stop it.
4. Consumer and Investor Confidence. There is always an abundance of confidence in the future of business and the market, at peaks. Even after markets turn down, as long as that confidence remains high the bear market has further to go. Markets traditionally turn around on low volume in the middle of widespread gloom about the future. Those who buy at the very beginning of major bull markets or sell at the
beginning of bear markets are regarded as equally unhinged, as I was regarded in the Spring of 2000 when I suggested, in my newsletter, the Nasdaq was a sell.
5. Gold. In times of uncertainty, the interest in gold and gold shares picks up.
6. Real Estate. It is normal for real estate prices to rise with stock market prices. There is usually a lot of public speculation in real estate at bull market tops. Whether real estate turns down in a bear market depends on how much inflation there is. In inflationary bear markets, real estate is seen as a haven and prices rise. In bear markets where inflation is low and the currency firm, real estate prices will usually stay firm in the early stages, but will decline as the bear market deepens.
7. Stock market action. At tops, there is what is commonly classified as ‘‘churning’’ (i.e., high volume but not much change in prices, or great irregularity in prices [some up sharply, some down sharply], plus a lot of volatility day to day).
8. Unanimity of bullish forecasts. Business leaders, brokers, advisory services, columnists and broadcasters are, in the main, bullish. Any downturn is dismissed as temporary.
9. Sharp rise in debt. At the top of a bull market, the pervasive mood is that one can make a profit in markets,without risk. Consumer debt,household debt service payments, losses by credit card issuers, bankruptcy filings and mortgage elinquencies all rise sharply.
2. Price earnings ratios. In recent years, even rational analysts have puzzled over why they no longer seem to ‘‘work.’’ This is all part of the separation of stocks from the values of the companies they represent. In his book Irrational Exuberance, Yale professor Robert Shiller points out that, since 1870, price earnings ratios for big companies have averaged just under 13 for a yield of 7.75%. In late 2001, that ratio was between 25 and 35, for a yield of about 2–4%,depending which biased source you read. To return to a more traditional price earnings ratio, the DJIA would have to fall to at least 5000. I will discuss that in more detail in a later chapter, but suffice it to say here that it suggests that this bear market has further to fall.
3. The Federal Reserve. Fed action has been the most closely watched indicator in the last 5 years. But, with the most aggressive rate reductions in history, driving US interest rates down to a level not seen since the 1960s and with no result, it is increasingly clear that when the US economy goes south, there is little government can do to stop it.
4. Consumer and Investor Confidence. There is always an abundance of confidence in the future of business and the market, at peaks. Even after markets turn down, as long as that confidence remains high the bear market has further to go. Markets traditionally turn around on low volume in the middle of widespread gloom about the future. Those who buy at the very beginning of major bull markets or sell at the
beginning of bear markets are regarded as equally unhinged, as I was regarded in the Spring of 2000 when I suggested, in my newsletter, the Nasdaq was a sell.
5. Gold. In times of uncertainty, the interest in gold and gold shares picks up.
6. Real Estate. It is normal for real estate prices to rise with stock market prices. There is usually a lot of public speculation in real estate at bull market tops. Whether real estate turns down in a bear market depends on how much inflation there is. In inflationary bear markets, real estate is seen as a haven and prices rise. In bear markets where inflation is low and the currency firm, real estate prices will usually stay firm in the early stages, but will decline as the bear market deepens.
7. Stock market action. At tops, there is what is commonly classified as ‘‘churning’’ (i.e., high volume but not much change in prices, or great irregularity in prices [some up sharply, some down sharply], plus a lot of volatility day to day).
8. Unanimity of bullish forecasts. Business leaders, brokers, advisory services, columnists and broadcasters are, in the main, bullish. Any downturn is dismissed as temporary.
9. Sharp rise in debt. At the top of a bull market, the pervasive mood is that one can make a profit in markets,without risk. Consumer debt,household debt service payments, losses by credit card issuers, bankruptcy filings and mortgage elinquencies all rise sharply.
Friday, January 16, 2009
The Education of Warren Buffet
Buffett’s dedication to Ben Graham, Phil Fisher, John Burr Williams, and Charlie Munger is understandable. Graham gave Buffett the intellectual basis for investing, the margin of safety, and helped Buffett learn how to master his emotions to take advantage of market f luctuations. Fisher gave Buffett an updated, workable methodology that enabled him to identify good long-term investments and manage a portfolio over the long term, and taught the value of focusing on just a few good companies. Williams gave him a mathematical model for calculating true value. Munger helped Buffett appreciate the economic returns that come from buying and owning great businesses. The frequent confusion surrounding Buffett’s investment actions is easily understood when we acknowledge that Buffett is the synthesis of all four men.
“It is not enough to have good intelligence,” Descartes wrote; “the principal thing is to apply it well.” It is the application that separates Buffett from other investment managers. Many of his peers are highly intelligent, disciplined, and dedicated. Buffett stands above them all because of his formidable ability to integrate the strategies of the four wise men into a single cohesive approach.
“It is not enough to have good intelligence,” Descartes wrote; “the principal thing is to apply it well.” It is the application that separates Buffett from other investment managers. Many of his peers are highly intelligent, disciplined, and dedicated. Buffett stands above them all because of his formidable ability to integrate the strategies of the four wise men into a single cohesive approach.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Think Like Warren Buffett
Back in 1999, Robert G. Hagstrom wrote a book about the legendary investor Warren Buffett, entitled "The Warren Buffett Portfolio". What's so great about the book, and what makes it different from the countless other books and articles written about the "Oracle of Omaha" is that it offers the reader valuable insight into how Buffett actually thinks about investments. In other words, the book delves into the psychological mindset that has made Buffett so fabulously wealthy.
Although investors could benefit from reading the entire book, we've selected a bite-sized sampling of the tips and suggestions regarding the investor mindset and ways that an investor can improve their stock selection that will help you get inside Buffett's head.
1. Think of Stocks as a Business
Many investors think of stocks and the stock market in general as nothing more than little pieces of paper being traded back and forth among investors, which might help prevent investors from becoming too emotional over a given position but it doesn't necessarily allow them to make the best possible investment decisions.
That's why Buffett has stated he believes stockholders should think of themselves as "part owners" of the business in which they are investing. By thinking that way, both Hagstrom and Buffett argue that investors will tend to avoid making off-the-cuff investment decisions, and become more focused on the longer term. Furthermore, longer-term "owners" also tend to analyze situations in greater detail and then put a great eal of thought into buy and sell decisions. Hagstrom says this increased thought and analysis tends to lead to improved investment returns. (To read more about Buffett's ideologies, check out Warren Buffett: How He Does It and What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)
2. Increase the Size of Your Investment
While it rarely - if ever - makes sense for investors to "put all of their eggs in one basket," putting all your eggs in too many baskets may not be a good thing either. Buffett contends that over-diversification can hamper returns as much as a lack of diversification. That's why he doesn't invest in mutual funds. It's also why he prefers to make significant investments in just a handful of companies. (To learn more about diversification, read Introduction To Diversification, The Importance Of Diversification and The Dangers Of Over-Diversification.)
Buffett is a firm believer that an investor must first do his or her homework before investing in any security. But after that due diligence process is completed, an investor should feel comfortable enough to dedicate a sizable portion of assets to that stock. They should also feel comfortable in winnowing down their overall investment portfolio to a handful of good companies with excellent growth prospects.
Buffett's stance on taking time to properly allocate your funds is furthered with his comment that it's not just about the best company, but how you feel about the company. If the best business you own presents the least financial risk and has the most favorable long-term prospects, why would you put money into your 20th favorite business rather than add money to the top choices?
3. Reduce Portfolio Turnover
Rapidly trading in and out of stocks can potentially make an individual a lot of money, but according to Buffett this trader is actually hampering his or her investment returns. That's because portfolio turnover increases the amount of taxes that must be paid on capital gains and boosts the total amount of commission dollars that must be paid in a given year.
The "Oracle" contends that what makes sense in business also makes sense in stocks: An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.
Investors must think long term. By having that mindset, they can avoid paying huge commission fees and lofty short-term capital gains taxes. They'll also be more apt to ride out any short-term fluctuations in the business, and to ultimately reap the rewards of increased earnings and/or dividends over time.
4. Develop Alternative Benchmarks
While stock prices may be the ultimate barometer of the success or failure of a given investment choice, Buffett does not focus on this metric. Instead, he analyzes and pores over the underlying economics of a given business or group of businesses. If a company is doing what it takes to grow itself on a profitable basis, then the share price will ultimately take care of itself.
Successful investors must look at the companies they own and study their true earnings potential. If the fundamentals are solid and the company is enhancing shareholder value by generating consistent bottom-line growth, the share price, in the long term, should reflect that. (To learn how to judge fundamentals on your own, see What Are Fundamentals?)
5. Learn to Think in Probabilities
Bridge is a card game in which the most successful players are able to judge mathematical probabilities to beat their opponents. Perhaps not surprisingly, Buffett loves and actively plays the game, and he takes the strategies beyond the game into the investing world.
Buffett suggests that investors focus on the economics of the companies they own (in other words the underlying businesses), and then try to weigh the probability that certain events will or will not transpire, much like a Bridge player checking the probabilities of his opponents' hands. He adds that by focusing on the economic aspect of the equation and not the stock price, an investor will be more accurate in his or her ability to judge probability.
Thinking in probabilities has its advantages. For example, an investor that ponders the probability that a company will report a certain rate of earnings growth over a period of five or 10 years is much more apt to ride out short-term fluctuations in the share price. By extension, this means that his investment returns are likely to be superior and that he will also realize fewer transaction and/or capital gains costs.
6. Recognize the Psychological Aspects of Investing
Very simply, this means that individuals must understand that there is a psychological mindset that the successful investor tends to have. More specifically, the successful investor will focus on probabilities and economic issues and let decisions be ruled by rational, as opposed to emotional, thinking.
More than anything, investors' own emotions can be their worst enemy. Buffett contends that the key to overcoming emotions is being able to "retain your belief in the real fundamentals of the business and to not get too concerned about the stock market."
Investors should realize that there is a certain psychological mindset that they should have if they want to be successful and try to implement that mindset. (To learn more about investor behaviors, read Understanding Investor Behavior, When Fear And Greed Take Over and Master Your Trading Mindtraps.)
7. Ignore Market Forecasts
There is an old saying that the Dow "climbs a wall of worry". In other words, in spite of the negativity in the marketplace, and those who perpetually contend that a recession is "just around the corner", the markets have fared quite well over time. Therefore, doomsayers should be ignored.
On the other side of the coin, there are just as many eternal optimists who argue that the stock market is headed perpetually higher. These should be ignored as well.
In all this confusion, Buffett suggests that investors should focus their efforts of isolating and investing in shares that are not currently being accurately valued by the market. The logic here is that as the stock market begins to realize the company's intrinsic value (through higher prices and greater demand), the investor will stand to make a lot of money.
8. Wait for the Fat Pitch
Hagstrom's book uses the model of legendary baseball player Ted Williams as an example of a wise investor. Williams would wait for a specific pitch (in an area of the plate where he knew he had a high probability of making contact with the ball) before swinging. It is said that this discipline enabled Williams to have a higher lifetime batting average than the average player.
Buffett, in the same way, suggests that all investors act as if they owned a lifetime decision card with only 20 investment choice punches in it. The logic is that this should prevent them from making mediocre investment choices and hopefully, by extension, enhance the overall returns of their respective portfolios.
Bottom Line
"The Warren Buffett Portfolio" is a timeless book that offers valuable insight into the psychological mindset of the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Of course, if learning how to invest like Warren Buffett were as easy as reading a book, everyone would be rich! But if you take that time and effort to implement some of Buffett's proven strategies, you could be on your way to better stock selection and greater returns.
Although investors could benefit from reading the entire book, we've selected a bite-sized sampling of the tips and suggestions regarding the investor mindset and ways that an investor can improve their stock selection that will help you get inside Buffett's head.
1. Think of Stocks as a Business
Many investors think of stocks and the stock market in general as nothing more than little pieces of paper being traded back and forth among investors, which might help prevent investors from becoming too emotional over a given position but it doesn't necessarily allow them to make the best possible investment decisions.
That's why Buffett has stated he believes stockholders should think of themselves as "part owners" of the business in which they are investing. By thinking that way, both Hagstrom and Buffett argue that investors will tend to avoid making off-the-cuff investment decisions, and become more focused on the longer term. Furthermore, longer-term "owners" also tend to analyze situations in greater detail and then put a great eal of thought into buy and sell decisions. Hagstrom says this increased thought and analysis tends to lead to improved investment returns. (To read more about Buffett's ideologies, check out Warren Buffett: How He Does It and What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)
2. Increase the Size of Your Investment
While it rarely - if ever - makes sense for investors to "put all of their eggs in one basket," putting all your eggs in too many baskets may not be a good thing either. Buffett contends that over-diversification can hamper returns as much as a lack of diversification. That's why he doesn't invest in mutual funds. It's also why he prefers to make significant investments in just a handful of companies. (To learn more about diversification, read Introduction To Diversification, The Importance Of Diversification and The Dangers Of Over-Diversification.)
Buffett is a firm believer that an investor must first do his or her homework before investing in any security. But after that due diligence process is completed, an investor should feel comfortable enough to dedicate a sizable portion of assets to that stock. They should also feel comfortable in winnowing down their overall investment portfolio to a handful of good companies with excellent growth prospects.
Buffett's stance on taking time to properly allocate your funds is furthered with his comment that it's not just about the best company, but how you feel about the company. If the best business you own presents the least financial risk and has the most favorable long-term prospects, why would you put money into your 20th favorite business rather than add money to the top choices?
3. Reduce Portfolio Turnover
Rapidly trading in and out of stocks can potentially make an individual a lot of money, but according to Buffett this trader is actually hampering his or her investment returns. That's because portfolio turnover increases the amount of taxes that must be paid on capital gains and boosts the total amount of commission dollars that must be paid in a given year.
The "Oracle" contends that what makes sense in business also makes sense in stocks: An investor should ordinarily hold a small piece of an outstanding business with the same tenacity that an owner would exhibit if he owned all of that business.
Investors must think long term. By having that mindset, they can avoid paying huge commission fees and lofty short-term capital gains taxes. They'll also be more apt to ride out any short-term fluctuations in the business, and to ultimately reap the rewards of increased earnings and/or dividends over time.
4. Develop Alternative Benchmarks
While stock prices may be the ultimate barometer of the success or failure of a given investment choice, Buffett does not focus on this metric. Instead, he analyzes and pores over the underlying economics of a given business or group of businesses. If a company is doing what it takes to grow itself on a profitable basis, then the share price will ultimately take care of itself.
Successful investors must look at the companies they own and study their true earnings potential. If the fundamentals are solid and the company is enhancing shareholder value by generating consistent bottom-line growth, the share price, in the long term, should reflect that. (To learn how to judge fundamentals on your own, see What Are Fundamentals?)
5. Learn to Think in Probabilities
Bridge is a card game in which the most successful players are able to judge mathematical probabilities to beat their opponents. Perhaps not surprisingly, Buffett loves and actively plays the game, and he takes the strategies beyond the game into the investing world.
Buffett suggests that investors focus on the economics of the companies they own (in other words the underlying businesses), and then try to weigh the probability that certain events will or will not transpire, much like a Bridge player checking the probabilities of his opponents' hands. He adds that by focusing on the economic aspect of the equation and not the stock price, an investor will be more accurate in his or her ability to judge probability.
Thinking in probabilities has its advantages. For example, an investor that ponders the probability that a company will report a certain rate of earnings growth over a period of five or 10 years is much more apt to ride out short-term fluctuations in the share price. By extension, this means that his investment returns are likely to be superior and that he will also realize fewer transaction and/or capital gains costs.
6. Recognize the Psychological Aspects of Investing
Very simply, this means that individuals must understand that there is a psychological mindset that the successful investor tends to have. More specifically, the successful investor will focus on probabilities and economic issues and let decisions be ruled by rational, as opposed to emotional, thinking.
More than anything, investors' own emotions can be their worst enemy. Buffett contends that the key to overcoming emotions is being able to "retain your belief in the real fundamentals of the business and to not get too concerned about the stock market."
Investors should realize that there is a certain psychological mindset that they should have if they want to be successful and try to implement that mindset. (To learn more about investor behaviors, read Understanding Investor Behavior, When Fear And Greed Take Over and Master Your Trading Mindtraps.)
7. Ignore Market Forecasts
There is an old saying that the Dow "climbs a wall of worry". In other words, in spite of the negativity in the marketplace, and those who perpetually contend that a recession is "just around the corner", the markets have fared quite well over time. Therefore, doomsayers should be ignored.
On the other side of the coin, there are just as many eternal optimists who argue that the stock market is headed perpetually higher. These should be ignored as well.
In all this confusion, Buffett suggests that investors should focus their efforts of isolating and investing in shares that are not currently being accurately valued by the market. The logic here is that as the stock market begins to realize the company's intrinsic value (through higher prices and greater demand), the investor will stand to make a lot of money.
8. Wait for the Fat Pitch
Hagstrom's book uses the model of legendary baseball player Ted Williams as an example of a wise investor. Williams would wait for a specific pitch (in an area of the plate where he knew he had a high probability of making contact with the ball) before swinging. It is said that this discipline enabled Williams to have a higher lifetime batting average than the average player.
Buffett, in the same way, suggests that all investors act as if they owned a lifetime decision card with only 20 investment choice punches in it. The logic is that this should prevent them from making mediocre investment choices and hopefully, by extension, enhance the overall returns of their respective portfolios.
Bottom Line
"The Warren Buffett Portfolio" is a timeless book that offers valuable insight into the psychological mindset of the legendary investor Warren Buffett. Of course, if learning how to invest like Warren Buffett were as easy as reading a book, everyone would be rich! But if you take that time and effort to implement some of Buffett's proven strategies, you could be on your way to better stock selection and greater returns.
Warren Buffett: How He Does I
Did you know that a $10,000 investment in Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, the year Warren Buffett took control of it, would grow to be worth nearly $30 million by 2005? By comparison, $10,000 in the S&P 500 would have grown to only about $500,000. Whether you like him or not, Buffett's investment strategy is arguably the most successful ever. With a sustained compound return this high for this long, it's no wonder Buffett's legend has swelled to mythical proportions. But how the heck did he do it? In this article, we'll introduce you to some of the most important tenets of Buffett's investment philosophy.
Buffett's Philosophy
Warren Buffett descends from the Benjamin Graham school of value investing. Value investors look for securities with prices that are unjustifiably low based on their intrinsic worth. When discussing stocks, determining intrinsic value can be a bit tricky as there is no universally accepted way to obtain this figure. Most often intrinsic worth is estimated by analyzing a company's fundamentals. Like bargain hunters, value investors seek products that are beneficial and of high quality but underpriced. In other words, the value investor searches for stocks that he or she believes are undervalued by the market. Like the bargain hunter, the value investor tries to find those items that are valuable but not recognized as such by the majority of other buyers.
Warren Buffett takes this value investing approach to another level. Many value investors aren't supporters of the efficient market hypothesis, but they do trust that the market will eventually start to favor those quality stocks that were, for a time, undervalued. Buffett, however, doesn't think in these terms. He isn't concerned with the supply and demand intricacies of the stock market. In fact, he's not really concerned with the activities of the stock market at all. This is the implication this paraphrase of his famous quote : "In the short term the market is a popularity contest; in the long term it is a weighing machine."(see What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)
He chooses stocks solely on the basis of their overall potential as a company - he looks at each as a whole. Holding these stocks as a long-term play, Buffett seeks not capital gain but ownership in quality companies extremely capable of generating earnings. When Buffett invests in a company, he isn't concerned with whether the market will eventually recognize its worth; he is concerned with how well that company can make money as a business.
Buffett's Methodology
Here we look at how Buffett finds low-priced value by asking himself some questions when he evaluates the relationship between a stock's level of excellence and its price. Keep in mind that these are not the only things he analyzes but rather a brief summary of what Buffett looks for:
1. Has the company consistently performed well?
Sometimes return on equity (ROE) is referred to as "stockholder's return on investment". It reveals the rate at which shareholders are earning income on their shares. Buffett always looks at ROE to see whether or not a company has consistently performed well in comparison to other companies in the same industry. ROE is calculated as follows:
= Net Income / Shareholder's Equity
Looking at the ROE in just the last year isn't enough. The investor should view the ROE from the past five to 10 years to get a good idea of historical performance.
2. Has the company avoided excess debt?
The debt/equity ratio is another key characteristic Buffett considers carefully. Buffett prefers to see a small amount of debt so that earnings growth is being generated from shareholders' equity as opposed to borrowed money. The debt/equity ratio is calculated as follows:
= Total Liabilities / Shareholders' Equity
This ratio shows the proportion of equity and debt the company is using to finance its assets, and the higher the ratio, the more debt - rather than equity - is financing the company. A high level of debt compared to equity can result in volatile earnings and large interest expenses. For a more stringent test, investors sometimes use only long-term debt instead of total liabilities in the calculation above.
3. Are profit margins high? Are they increasing?
The profitability of a company depends not only on having a good profit margin but also on consistently increasing this profit margin. This margin is calculated by dividing net income by net sales. To get a good indication of historical profit margins, investors should look back at least five years. A high profit margin indicates the company is executing its business well, but increasing margins means management has been extremely efficient and successful at controlling expenses.
4. How long has the company been public?
Buffett typically considers only companies that have been around for at least 10 years. As a result, most of the technology companies that have had their initial public offerings (IPOs) in the past decade wouldn't get on Buffett's radar (not to mention the fact that Buffett will invest only in a business that he fully understands, and he admittedly does not understand what a lot of today's technology companies actually do). It makes sense that one of Buffet's criteria is longevity: value investing means looking at companies that have stood the test of time but are currently undervalued.
Never underestimate the value of historical performance, which demonstrates the company's ability (or inability) to increase shareholder value. Do keep in mind, however, that the past performance of a stock does not guarantee future performance - the job of the value investor is to determine how well the company can perform as well as it did in the past. Determining this is inherently tricky, but evidently Buffett is very good at it.
5. Do the company's products rely on a commodity?
Initially you might think of this question as a radical approach to narrowing down a company. Buffett, however, sees this question as an important one. He tends to shy away (but not always) from companies whose products are indistinguishable from those of competitors, and those that rely solely on a commodity such as oil and gas. If the company does not offer anything different than another firm within the same industry, Buffett sees little that sets the company apart. Any characteristic that is hard to replicate is what Buffett calls a company's economic moat, or competitive advantage. The wider the moat, the tougher it is for a competitor to gain market share.
6. Is the stock selling at a 25% discount to its real value?
This is the kicker. Finding companies that meet the other five criteria is one thing, but determining whether they are undervalued is the most difficult part of value investing, and Buffett's most important skill. To check this, an investor must determine the intrinsic value of a company by analyzing a number of business fundamentals, including earnings, revenues and assets. And a company's intrinsic value is usually higher (and more complicated) than its liquidation value - what a company would be worth if it were broken up and sold today. The liquidation value doesn't include intangibles such as the value of a brand name, which is not directly stated on the financial statements.
Once Buffett determines the intrinsic value of the company as a whole, he compares it to its current market capitalization - the current total worth (price). If his measurement of intrinsic value is at least 25% higher than the company's market capitalization, Buffett sees the company as one that has value. Sounds easy, doesn't it? Well, Buffett's success, however, depends on his unmatched skill in accurately determining this intrinsic value. While we can outline some of his criteria, we have no way of knowing exactly how he gained such precise mastery of calculating value. (To learn more about the value investing strategy of selecting stocks, check out our Guide To Stock-Picking Strategies.)
Conclusion
As you have probably noticed, Buffett's investing style, like the shopping style of a bargain hunter, reflects a practical, down-to-earth attitude. Buffett maintains this attitude in other areas of his life: he doesn't live in a huge house, he doesn't collect cars and he doesn't take a limousine to work. The value-investing style is not without its critics, but whether you support Buffett or not, the proof is in the pudding. As of 2004, he holds the title of the second-richest man in the world, with a net worth of more $40 billion (Forbes 2004). Do note that the most difficult thing for any value investor, including Buffett, is in accurately determining a company's intrinsic value.
Buffett's Philosophy
Warren Buffett descends from the Benjamin Graham school of value investing. Value investors look for securities with prices that are unjustifiably low based on their intrinsic worth. When discussing stocks, determining intrinsic value can be a bit tricky as there is no universally accepted way to obtain this figure. Most often intrinsic worth is estimated by analyzing a company's fundamentals. Like bargain hunters, value investors seek products that are beneficial and of high quality but underpriced. In other words, the value investor searches for stocks that he or she believes are undervalued by the market. Like the bargain hunter, the value investor tries to find those items that are valuable but not recognized as such by the majority of other buyers.
Warren Buffett takes this value investing approach to another level. Many value investors aren't supporters of the efficient market hypothesis, but they do trust that the market will eventually start to favor those quality stocks that were, for a time, undervalued. Buffett, however, doesn't think in these terms. He isn't concerned with the supply and demand intricacies of the stock market. In fact, he's not really concerned with the activities of the stock market at all. This is the implication this paraphrase of his famous quote : "In the short term the market is a popularity contest; in the long term it is a weighing machine."(see What Is Warren Buffett's Investing Style?)
He chooses stocks solely on the basis of their overall potential as a company - he looks at each as a whole. Holding these stocks as a long-term play, Buffett seeks not capital gain but ownership in quality companies extremely capable of generating earnings. When Buffett invests in a company, he isn't concerned with whether the market will eventually recognize its worth; he is concerned with how well that company can make money as a business.
Buffett's Methodology
Here we look at how Buffett finds low-priced value by asking himself some questions when he evaluates the relationship between a stock's level of excellence and its price. Keep in mind that these are not the only things he analyzes but rather a brief summary of what Buffett looks for:
1. Has the company consistently performed well?
Sometimes return on equity (ROE) is referred to as "stockholder's return on investment". It reveals the rate at which shareholders are earning income on their shares. Buffett always looks at ROE to see whether or not a company has consistently performed well in comparison to other companies in the same industry. ROE is calculated as follows:
= Net Income / Shareholder's Equity
Looking at the ROE in just the last year isn't enough. The investor should view the ROE from the past five to 10 years to get a good idea of historical performance.
2. Has the company avoided excess debt?
The debt/equity ratio is another key characteristic Buffett considers carefully. Buffett prefers to see a small amount of debt so that earnings growth is being generated from shareholders' equity as opposed to borrowed money. The debt/equity ratio is calculated as follows:
= Total Liabilities / Shareholders' Equity
This ratio shows the proportion of equity and debt the company is using to finance its assets, and the higher the ratio, the more debt - rather than equity - is financing the company. A high level of debt compared to equity can result in volatile earnings and large interest expenses. For a more stringent test, investors sometimes use only long-term debt instead of total liabilities in the calculation above.
3. Are profit margins high? Are they increasing?
The profitability of a company depends not only on having a good profit margin but also on consistently increasing this profit margin. This margin is calculated by dividing net income by net sales. To get a good indication of historical profit margins, investors should look back at least five years. A high profit margin indicates the company is executing its business well, but increasing margins means management has been extremely efficient and successful at controlling expenses.
4. How long has the company been public?
Buffett typically considers only companies that have been around for at least 10 years. As a result, most of the technology companies that have had their initial public offerings (IPOs) in the past decade wouldn't get on Buffett's radar (not to mention the fact that Buffett will invest only in a business that he fully understands, and he admittedly does not understand what a lot of today's technology companies actually do). It makes sense that one of Buffet's criteria is longevity: value investing means looking at companies that have stood the test of time but are currently undervalued.
Never underestimate the value of historical performance, which demonstrates the company's ability (or inability) to increase shareholder value. Do keep in mind, however, that the past performance of a stock does not guarantee future performance - the job of the value investor is to determine how well the company can perform as well as it did in the past. Determining this is inherently tricky, but evidently Buffett is very good at it.
5. Do the company's products rely on a commodity?
Initially you might think of this question as a radical approach to narrowing down a company. Buffett, however, sees this question as an important one. He tends to shy away (but not always) from companies whose products are indistinguishable from those of competitors, and those that rely solely on a commodity such as oil and gas. If the company does not offer anything different than another firm within the same industry, Buffett sees little that sets the company apart. Any characteristic that is hard to replicate is what Buffett calls a company's economic moat, or competitive advantage. The wider the moat, the tougher it is for a competitor to gain market share.
6. Is the stock selling at a 25% discount to its real value?
This is the kicker. Finding companies that meet the other five criteria is one thing, but determining whether they are undervalued is the most difficult part of value investing, and Buffett's most important skill. To check this, an investor must determine the intrinsic value of a company by analyzing a number of business fundamentals, including earnings, revenues and assets. And a company's intrinsic value is usually higher (and more complicated) than its liquidation value - what a company would be worth if it were broken up and sold today. The liquidation value doesn't include intangibles such as the value of a brand name, which is not directly stated on the financial statements.
Once Buffett determines the intrinsic value of the company as a whole, he compares it to its current market capitalization - the current total worth (price). If his measurement of intrinsic value is at least 25% higher than the company's market capitalization, Buffett sees the company as one that has value. Sounds easy, doesn't it? Well, Buffett's success, however, depends on his unmatched skill in accurately determining this intrinsic value. While we can outline some of his criteria, we have no way of knowing exactly how he gained such precise mastery of calculating value. (To learn more about the value investing strategy of selecting stocks, check out our Guide To Stock-Picking Strategies.)
Conclusion
As you have probably noticed, Buffett's investing style, like the shopping style of a bargain hunter, reflects a practical, down-to-earth attitude. Buffett maintains this attitude in other areas of his life: he doesn't live in a huge house, he doesn't collect cars and he doesn't take a limousine to work. The value-investing style is not without its critics, but whether you support Buffett or not, the proof is in the pudding. As of 2004, he holds the title of the second-richest man in the world, with a net worth of more $40 billion (Forbes 2004). Do note that the most difficult thing for any value investor, including Buffett, is in accurately determining a company's intrinsic value.
3 Popular Strategies For Stock combine with Options
Covered Call
What Does Covered Call Mean?
An options strategy whereby an investor holds a long position in an asset and writes (sells) call options on that same asset in an attempt to generate increased income from the asset. This is often employed when an investor has a short-term neutral view on the asset and for this reason hold the asset long and simultaneously have a short position via the option to generate income from the option premium.
This is also known as a "buy-write".
Investopedia explains Covered Call...
For example, let's say that you own shares of the TSJ Sports Conglomerate and like its long-term prospects as well as its share price but feel in the shorter term the stock will likely trade relatively flat, perhaps within a few dollars of its current price of, say, $25. If you sell a call option on TSJ for $26, you earn the premium from the option sale but cap your upside. One of three scenarios is going to play out:
a) TSJ shares trade flat (below the $26 strike price) - the option will expire worthless and you keep the premium from the option. In this case, by using the buy-write strategy you have successfully outperformed the stock.
b) TSJ shares fall - the option expires worthless, you keep the premium, and again you outperform the stock.
c) TSJ shares rise above $26 - the option is exercised, and your upside is capped at $26, plus the option premium. In this case, if the stock price goes higher than $26, plus the premium, your buy-write strategy has underperformed the TSJ shares.
Synthetic Call
What Does Synthetic Call Mean?
An investment strategy that mimics the payoff of a call option. A synthetic call is created by purchasing the underlying asset, selling a bond and purchasing a put option. The strike price on the put option is equal to the face value of the bond, which serves as the exercise price of the synthetic call.
Investopedia explains Synthetic Call...
A synthetic call produces the same overall payoff as a call option. The synthetic call will finish in the money when the price of the underlying asset is greater than the face value of the sold bond at the time of expiration. It will be out-of-the-money when the value of the bond is greater than that of the underlying asset. When the synthetic call is in the money, the profit is the difference between the price of the underlying asset and the face value of the bond. If the call finishes out of the money, the put option absorbs the loss from the underlying asset, with the exercise price of the put paying for the bond.
Collar
What Does Collar Mean?
1. A protective options strategy that is implemented after a long position in a stock has experienced substantial gains. It is created by purchasing an out of the money put option while simultaneously writing an out of the money call option.
Also known as "hedge wrapper".
2. A general restriction on market activities.
Investopedia Says Icon
1. The purchase of an out-of-the money put option is what protects the underlying shares from a large downward move and locks in the profit. The price paid to buy the puts is lowered by amount of premium that is collect by selling the out of the money call. The ultimate goal of this position is that the underlying stock continues to rise until the written strike is reached.
2. An example is a circuit breaker which is meant to prevent extreme losses (or gains) once an index reaches a certain level.
Collars can protect you against massive losses, but they also prevent massive gains.
What Does Covered Call Mean?
An options strategy whereby an investor holds a long position in an asset and writes (sells) call options on that same asset in an attempt to generate increased income from the asset. This is often employed when an investor has a short-term neutral view on the asset and for this reason hold the asset long and simultaneously have a short position via the option to generate income from the option premium.
This is also known as a "buy-write".
Investopedia explains Covered Call...
For example, let's say that you own shares of the TSJ Sports Conglomerate and like its long-term prospects as well as its share price but feel in the shorter term the stock will likely trade relatively flat, perhaps within a few dollars of its current price of, say, $25. If you sell a call option on TSJ for $26, you earn the premium from the option sale but cap your upside. One of three scenarios is going to play out:
a) TSJ shares trade flat (below the $26 strike price) - the option will expire worthless and you keep the premium from the option. In this case, by using the buy-write strategy you have successfully outperformed the stock.
b) TSJ shares fall - the option expires worthless, you keep the premium, and again you outperform the stock.
c) TSJ shares rise above $26 - the option is exercised, and your upside is capped at $26, plus the option premium. In this case, if the stock price goes higher than $26, plus the premium, your buy-write strategy has underperformed the TSJ shares.
Synthetic Call
What Does Synthetic Call Mean?
An investment strategy that mimics the payoff of a call option. A synthetic call is created by purchasing the underlying asset, selling a bond and purchasing a put option. The strike price on the put option is equal to the face value of the bond, which serves as the exercise price of the synthetic call.
Investopedia explains Synthetic Call...
A synthetic call produces the same overall payoff as a call option. The synthetic call will finish in the money when the price of the underlying asset is greater than the face value of the sold bond at the time of expiration. It will be out-of-the-money when the value of the bond is greater than that of the underlying asset. When the synthetic call is in the money, the profit is the difference between the price of the underlying asset and the face value of the bond. If the call finishes out of the money, the put option absorbs the loss from the underlying asset, with the exercise price of the put paying for the bond.
Collar
What Does Collar Mean?
1. A protective options strategy that is implemented after a long position in a stock has experienced substantial gains. It is created by purchasing an out of the money put option while simultaneously writing an out of the money call option.
Also known as "hedge wrapper".
2. A general restriction on market activities.
Investopedia Says Icon
1. The purchase of an out-of-the money put option is what protects the underlying shares from a large downward move and locks in the profit. The price paid to buy the puts is lowered by amount of premium that is collect by selling the out of the money call. The ultimate goal of this position is that the underlying stock continues to rise until the written strike is reached.
2. An example is a circuit breaker which is meant to prevent extreme losses (or gains) once an index reaches a certain level.
Collars can protect you against massive losses, but they also prevent massive gains.
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